First: Forex Markets
The currency markets witnessed notable fluctuations during this period, influenced by significant political and economic developments on a global level. Among the most prominent developments:
EUR/USD (Euro vs US Dollar): The pair saw a slight rise to 1.1450, supported by statements from the European Central Bank regarding the continuation of accommodative policies amid concerns of economic slowdown in the Eurozone.
USD/JPY (US Dollar vs Japanese Yen): The pair declined to 139.25 due to increased demand for the yen as a safe haven amid geopolitical crises emerging in certain parts of Asia.
GBP/USD (British Pound vs US Dollar): The pair rose to 1.3450, supported by a surprising improvement in UK economic data and market expectations of a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of England.
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs US Dollar): The pair recorded 0.6420, affected by waves of optimism regarding increased Australian exports following improved trade relations with Southeast Asian markets.
Second: Gold Prices
Gold prices experienced fluctuations during this period, moving within a wide range between $3,250 and $3,400 per ounce:
Initially, prices rose to $3,350 per ounce, supported by increased demand for gold as a safe haven due to stock market volatility and geopolitical threats.
As political tensions eased in some parts of the world, prices slightly dropped to $3,300, with markets awaiting further information on the monetary policies of major central banks.
Outlook: Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term, with the potential to reach higher levels in the third quarter of 2025.
Third: Political Tensions and Their Impact on the Markets
Political tensions in the Middle East: Tensions escalated between certain countries in the region, indirectly affecting currency and gold markets. Some Gulf currencies experienced unstable movements due to these developments.
Trade tensions between the United States and China: Despite positive reports on trade negotiations, investors remain cautious, leading to volatility in forex markets.
Political crises in Latin America: Brazil and Mexico faced political challenges that impacted investments in emerging markets, prompting many investors to rebalance their portfolios.
Fourth: Future Outlook
Currency Markets: Volatility is expected to continue, with traders monitoring economic developments in the United States and the Eurozone. Attention is also focused on US monetary policy and its effects on the value of the dollar.
Gold Prices: Gold is expected to continue maintaining its value as a safe haven amid ongoing economic and political tensions, with the possibility of reaching new highs in the second half of the year.
Global Trade: Trade tensions are expected to remain a challenge for the global economy, which could lead to further movements in currency and precious metal markets.
