Market Analysis – Period from August 4 to August 8, 2025

Forex
The forex market witnessed significant volatility this week with a notable decline in the US dollar on Friday after disappointing US employment data, which may lead to further dollar weakness at the start of August.

Key Moves:

US Dollar Index (DXY):

• Closed July on a positive note, but Friday’s employment data triggered a decline

• A sustained break below 97.35 may indicate dollar weakness next week

• Potential targets: 98.46 and possibly 97.74–97.93

• Resistance at 99.35, main support at 98.50/60

Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD):

• Fell below the March trendline in July and lost the key 1.1450 level

• Friday’s employment data pushed the pair back above 1.1450

• Resistance at 1.1585, with an area of interest between 1.1500–1.1520

• Potential targets: 1.1616, 1.1706, and 1.1736

British Pound vs. US Dollar (GBP/USD):

• Regained an important zone after Friday’s employment data

• Fell below 1.3240 support, but intraday recovery signals possible upside

• Main resistance at 1.3380 then 1.3440

• Main support at 1.3240

US Dollar vs. Swiss Franc (USD/CHF):

• Broke a descending channel since May

• Declined after employment data, but buyers may defend the 0.7920 zone

• If 0.7920 holds, the dollar’s upward trend may continue

Technical Outlook:

• The dollar index is at a critical area – a break below 99.35 may confirm a decline

• EUR/USD needs to regain 1.1585 to unlock higher levels

• GBP/USD could rise towards 1.3380–1.3440

Gold
Gold shows signs of a corrective rise after reclaiming the $3,285 level, but remains under mixed pressures.

Key Drivers:

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Asia support safe-haven demand

• US dollar strength and expectations of the Fed keeping rates high limit upside potential

• Fed officials’ comments influence short-term gold volatility

Technical Analysis:

• A symmetrical triangle forming around $3,330 on the daily chart

• A break below $3,320 would confirm the end of consolidation and target $3,250–3,240

• If pressure intensifies, the decline could extend to $3,060–3,050

• A return above $3,385 and consolidation there would turn the outlook bullish, with potential growth to $3,500–3,535

Additional Outlook:

• Expect a short-term bearish correction and support test near $3,315

• Then continuation upward with a target above $3,785

• A break below $3,075 cancels the bullish scenario, targeting below $2,945

Key Levels:

• Support: 3,320, 3,250, 3,285 (main)

• Resistance: 3,385, 3,440, 3,575

Oil (Brent)
Oil dropped to its lowest level in a week after OPEC+ agreed to another significant production increase in September, raising concerns about oversupply.

Key Drivers:

• OPEC+ approved a 547,000 bpd output hike in September

• US data showed weak fuel demand in the world’s largest consumer

• US production hit a monthly record in May

• Traders hedging for possible further supply increases

Geopolitical Developments:

• Trump threatened 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil

• Raised tariffs on India over its Russian oil purchases

• About 1.7 million bpd of supply could be at risk if Indian refineries halt Russian crude imports

Prices:

• Brent crude fell $0.91, or 1.3%, to settle at $68.76 per barrel

• WTI fell $1.04, or 1.5%, to close at $66.29 per barrel

Outlook:

Bullish Scenario (Base):

• $68.60 support remains critical for the continuation of the uptrend

• Upside targets: $76.50 (local target), $79.40 (main target)

Bearish Scenario (Alternative):

• A break and consolidation below $66.50 signals deeper correction

• Downside targets: $64.00 (major support), $62.00 (May consolidation low)

Key Levels:

• Support: 68.60, 66.50

• Resistance: 72.60, 76.50

Summary & General Outlook
This week, financial markets are experiencing significant volatility driven by multiple factors, most notably disappointing US employment data and OPEC+ decisions to boost output. The US dollar faces pressure that may persist into next week, supporting major currencies and gold. Oil, meanwhile, is challenged by oversupply risks despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Investors await further economic data and US monetary policy developments to determine future market direction.