Market Analysis – July 18 to 25, 2025

Forex

The forex market experienced notable volatility this week. The US dollar rose strongly at the start of the week, supported by solid economic data, but then partially declined toward the end as signs of easing inflation emerged.

The British pound recovered slightly from previous losses, bolstered by positive data from the UK services sector. Meanwhile, the euro remained range-bound due to a lack of strong catalysts.

Key Movements:

• The US dollar started the week strong but weakened by the end due to inflation data.

• The British pound saw a modest rebound following positive services sector data.

• The euro traded sideways in a narrow range, with no major drivers.

Technical Outlook:

• The medium-term trend for the dollar remains bullish, though short-term fluctuations are expected.

• RSI indicators show the dollar may be overbought against some currencies.

• Technical trading opportunities appeared on pairs like USD/JPY and GBP/USD near major resistance levels.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold prices were choppy this week. Early sessions saw declines pressured by a stronger dollar and rising bond yields. However, prices rebounded later in the week due to renewed geopolitical concerns and weak US growth data.

Key Influences:

• Initial selling pressure from a strong dollar.

• Late-week support due to renewed safe-haven demand.

Technical Analysis:

• Gold tested strong support around $3,365 and rebounded higher.

• Holding above $3,400 could open the way to targeting $3,450 in the short term.

• Markets are awaiting any signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy.

Oil (Brent Crude)

Oil prices rose during the week, supported by reports of an unexpected drop in US inventories and ongoing concerns over potential supply chain disruptions. Brent crude approached the $81 mark before pulling back slightly at week’s end.

Key Drivers:

• US inventory data provided upward pressure on prices.

• Continued concerns over supply disruptions in some production regions.

Outlook:

• Brent likely to trade in the $78–82 range in the short term.

• Upside potential remains if inventory declines persist or new tensions arise.

• The market remains sensitive to developments from OPEC+ or the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports.