Weekly Market Report: July 14–18, 2025

1. EUR/USD (Euro vs US Dollar)

• July 14: Initial decline to 1.1666 following escalating U.S.–EU tensions after the U.S. imposed 30% import tariffs.

• July 17: Stabilized around 1.169–1.170, supported by positive economic data in Europe and a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, especially after Trump’s comments on inflation.

Technical Outlook:

• There is a potential break of the 1.1635–1.1640 support zone by the weekly close.

• Strong resistance expected at 1.1850–1.1855.

2. USD/JPY (US Dollar vs Japanese Yen)

• Increased demand for the Japanese yen due to South China Sea tensions and risk-averse sentiment drove the pair lower to the 160–161 zone.

• The movement reflected a broader shift toward safe-haven assets.

3. GBP/USD (British Pound vs US Dollar)

• No major data releases during this period, but the pair held steady near 1.35.

• Hints from the Bank of England regarding a slowing labor market may have contributed to limited movement.

4. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar vs US Dollar)

• No major technical/fundamental updates during this period.

• The pair likely remained stable between 0.67–0.68, supported by steady commodity prices and calmer trade relations with Asia.

Gold (XAU/USD)

• July 14: Gold surged above $3,350 per ounce due to global trade tensions.

• July 17: Minor correction to around $3,334, as the US dollar strengthened and investor anxiety eased after Trump denied intentions to dismiss the Fed Chair.

Technical Outlook:

• Further upside likely if prices breach $3,370–3,400, with strong support around $3,315–3,330.

Geopolitical Tensions & Market Impact

• Trump’s tariff threats against the EU and Mexico (initiated on July 14) pressured the euro and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

• South China Sea developments contributed to the strength of the yen and gold.

• Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s direction was temporarily eased by Trump’s reassurances regarding the Fed Chair’s position.

Outlook After July 18

• FX Markets: Continued volatility expected for EUR/USD, likely fluctuating between 1.1650–1.1850. Traders should watch for any tariff-related news or U.S. inflation data.

• Gold: A potential upward move toward $3,400–$3,500 if geopolitical tensions persist or if inflation data underperforms.

• Global Trade: The escalating tariff measures remain a primary source of market pressure, impacting capital flows and investor sentiment.